Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 656 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 656 OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2812 OKC 18:16 → DFW 19:27 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 656 American Flight history →	OKC 05:01	DFW 06:07	5%	4%	0.8%	92%
AA 3119 American	OKC 06:07	DFW 07:18	7%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2272 American Flight history →	OKC 07:46	DFW 09:03	11%	4%	0.8%	86%
AA 6203 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:25	DFW 09:44	12%	5%	0.6%	86%
AA 1902 American Flight history →	OKC 11:07	DFW 12:18	14%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 3099 American	OKC 12:19	DFW 13:31	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2929 American Flight history →	OKC 15:14	DFW 16:25	19%	8%	0.7%	72%
AA 2832 American	OKC 17:30	DFW 18:41	26%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 2812 American Flight history →	OKC 18:16	DFW 19:27	29%	9%	0.8%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON