Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4535 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Safest bet that day AA 4535 OKC 06:02 → LGA 10:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest YX 4426 OKC 16:29 → LGA 21:05 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4535 American flown by Republic Flight history →	OKC 06:02	LGA 10:30	9%	4%	1.2%	86%
YX 4426 Republic	OKC 16:29	LGA 21:05	37%	16%	1.1%	no record
DL 5172 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 06:20	LGA 10:52	11%	6%	1.8%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON