Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 224 Southwest	OKC 05:06	MDW 07:14	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3240 Southwest	OKC 15:16	MDW 17:24	10%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 07m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	OKC 11:09 → ATL 14:17DL 2490	58m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	5h 06m	93%	81%
Southwest Details →	OKC 12:56 → HOU 14:35WN 4760	47m Houston	HOU 15:22 → MDW 17:58WN 2087	5h 02m	79%	60%
Delta Details →	OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	5h 24m	98%	58%
Delta Details →	OKC 11:57 → MSP 14:03DL 5142 · flown by Endeavor	2h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	6h 20m	96%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON