tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:49, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 13m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:55 → MIA 12:55AA 1219 6h 54m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Denver DEN 09:32 → MIA 15:36UA 1418 8h 31m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323 7h 31m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → OKC 06:40 → CLT 10:20AA 2273 3h 09m Charlotte CLT 13:29 → MIA 15:36AA 1198 7h 56m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → OKC 17:07 → ATL 20:29DL 2862 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 5h 32m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → OKC 13:38 → ORD 15:53AA 6395 · flown by SkyWest 3h 18m Chicago ORD 19:11 → MIA 23:35AA 1159 8h 57m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → OKC 13:18 → ATL 16:30DL 2020 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588 7h 41m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OKC 13:58 → CLT 17:41AA 1626 47m Charlotte CLT 18:28 → MIA 20:34AA 400 5h 36m 70% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON