Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 3844 at 07:45, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3844 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 07:45	MSP 09:58	6%	3%	0.5%	89%
DL 5142 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 11:57	MSP 14:03	24%	9%	0.0%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	6h 35m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	8h 01m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	OKC 08:26 → SLC 10:07DL 4029 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	6h 14m	96%	88%
American Details →	OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → MSP 09:52AA 2220	4h 51m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	OKC 11:09 → ATL 14:17DL 2490	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	7h 09m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	OKC 13:18 → ATL 16:30DL 2020	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280	8h 20m	99%	84%
American Details →	OKC 06:40 → CLT 10:20AA 2273	2h 09m Charlotte	CLT 12:29 → MSP 14:23AA 1671	7h 43m	97%	84%
United Details →	OKC 11:30 → DEN 12:28UA 5490 · flown by SkyWest	3h 14m Denver	DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470	7h 16m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON