Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2183 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2183 OKC 07:15 → ORD 09:28 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4744 OKC 17:59 → ORD 20:25 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2183 United	OKC 07:15	ORD 09:28	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 4994 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 07:28	ORD 09:42	15%	8%	1.1%	63%
UA 5823 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:45	ORD 11:11	16%	7%	0.9%	78%
AA 6484 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 19:09	ORD 21:24	19%	11%	1.0%	65%
AA 6395 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:38	ORD 15:53	21%	11%	1.4%	73%
UA 5867 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:20	ORD 15:34	22%	11%	1.4%	76%
MQ 4037 Envoy	OKC 12:46	ORD 15:04	24%	9%	1.2%	no record
OO 4744 SkyWest	OKC 17:59	ORD 20:25	24%	14%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON