Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1646 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1646 OKC 06:06 → PHX 06:31 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5002 OKC 17:37 → PHX 18:07 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1646 Southwest	OKC 06:06	PHX 06:31	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3242 Southwest	OKC 12:21	PHX 13:00	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 6392 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:59	PHX 09:32	12%	7%	0.6%	84%
OO 4894 SkyWest	OKC 14:47	PHX 15:17	16%	9%	0.6%	no record
OO 5002 SkyWest	OKC 17:37	PHX 18:07	18%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON