tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 405 Alaska Flight history → OKC 14:55 SEA 16:53 14% 3% 0.7% 86%
AS 9411 Alaska OKC 17:07 SEA 18:55 17% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889 7h 15m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 11h 01m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → OKC 11:09 → ATL 14:17DL 2490 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 9h 56m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → OKC 08:26 → SLC 10:07DL 4029 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921 8h 09m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → OKC 06:40 → CLT 10:20AA 2273 2h 08m Charlotte CLT 12:28 → SEA 15:21AA 506 10h 41m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Denver DEN 08:03 → SEA 09:53UA 1348 5h 48m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → OKC 11:30 → DEN 12:28UA 5490 · flown by SkyWest 1h 45m Denver DEN 14:13 → SEA 16:22UA 2833 6h 52m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → OKC 13:18 → ATL 16:30DL 2020 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → SEA 20:11DL 714 8h 53m 96% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa 47m Houston IAH 12:02 → SEA 14:27UA 2228 6h 48m 69% 55%
UnitedDetails → OKC 13:20 → ORD 15:34UA 5867 · flown by SkyWest 46m Chicago ORD 16:20 → SEA 19:06UA 1801 7h 46m 70% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON