tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3244 at 16:21, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3244 Southwest OMA 16:21 BNA 18:16 17% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 05m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442 1h 11m Denver DEN 08:00 → BNA 11:42UA 605 5h 42m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → OMA 08:05 → MSP 09:30DL 3512 · flown by SkyWest 3h 20m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843 6h 47m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 7h 02m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m Minneapolis MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612 6h 43m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → OMA 06:20 → CLT 09:58AA 1042 2h 08m Charlotte CLT 12:06 → BNA 12:38AA 2409 6h 18m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:23 → ATL 13:38DL 2632 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 5h 03m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399 3h 18m Houston IAH 11:55 → BNA 14:02UA 1318 7h 47m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:33 → DFW 18:35AA 2269 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:31 → BNA 21:34AA 2979 5h 01m 70% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON