Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4857 at 05:56, with a 1% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4857 Southwest	OMA 05:56	DAL 07:52	1%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	5h 59m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	8h 02m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:23 → ATL 13:38DL 2632	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	7h 31m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON