Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5608 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	OMA 11:00	DCA 14:34	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 3245 Southwest	OMA 12:56	DCA 16:38	17%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 48m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136	58m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 02m	96%	86%
United Details →	OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442	2h 41m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	7h 59m	99%	85%
American Details →	OMA 05:20 → DFW 07:20AA 2540	1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177	6h 22m	97%	84%
United Details →	OMA 14:58 → IAH 17:25UA 6259 · flown by Mesa	2h 25m Houston	IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224	8h 01m	97%	83%
United Details →	OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399	3h 18m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654	8h 48m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	2h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	6h 17m	98%	82%
American Details →	OMA 07:00 → ORD 08:51AA 3197	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 10:36 → DCA 13:45AA 1200	5h 45m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON