Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3246 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3246 OMA 07:01 → DEN 07:41 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1573 OMA 17:18 → DEN 18:02 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3246 Southwest	OMA 07:01	DEN 07:41	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1442 United Flight history →	OMA 06:00	DEN 06:49	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 1788 Southwest	OMA 10:57	DEN 11:39	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 5935 SkyWest	OMA 11:32	DEN 12:16	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 5504 SkyWest	OMA 19:12	DEN 20:23	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1195 United Flight history →	OMA 13:48	DEN 14:35	12%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 2838 United Flight history →	OMA 09:06	DEN 09:55	17%	3%	0.6%	76%
WN 3353 Southwest	OMA 17:01	DEN 17:39	20%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1573 United	OMA 17:18	DEN 18:02	25%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON