Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2540 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2540 OMA 06:25 → DFW 08:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2269 OMA 16:33 → DFW 18:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2540 American Flight history →	OMA 06:25	DFW 08:26	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 2135 American	OMA 09:59	DFW 12:01	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2823 American Flight history →	OMA 12:03	DFW 14:05	14%	4%	0.6%	63%
AA 2269 American Flight history →	OMA 16:33	DFW 18:35	20%	5%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON