tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3570 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3570 Southwest OMA 06:36 LAS 07:32 4% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 3250 Southwest OMA 14:41 LAS 15:35 20% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442 1h 16m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 5h 07m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest 1h 52m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 6h 31m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399 3h 18m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 58m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 7h 35m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → OMA 08:05 → MSP 09:30DL 3512 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 6h 21m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → OMA 09:06 → DEN 09:55UA 2838 3h 33m Denver DEN 13:28 → LAS 14:28UA 493 7h 22m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Minneapolis MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542 7h 18m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549 9h 17m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:33 → DFW 18:35AA 2269 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:22 → LAS 20:11AA 1771 5h 38m 54% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON