Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3864 OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OO 3936 OMA 17:39 → MSP 19:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3864 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 06:00	MSP 07:21	4%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 3512 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 08:05	MSP 09:30	5%	3%	0.5%	87%
DL 3831 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 10:52	MSP 12:15	5%	3%	0.5%	82%
OO 3946 SkyWest	OMA 13:43	MSP 15:04	7%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3936 SkyWest	OMA 17:39	MSP 19:00	9%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON