Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1486 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1486 OMA 06:00 → ORD 07:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1476 OMA 18:40 → ORD 20:34 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1486 United	OMA 06:00	ORD 07:50	7%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 3197 American Flight history →	OMA 07:00	ORD 08:51	9%	3%	1.2%	89%
OO 5385 SkyWest	OMA 08:04	ORD 09:49	12%	5%	1.5%	no record
UA 600 United Flight history →	OMA 11:23	ORD 13:15	15%	5%	0.9%	80%
AA 4042 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OMA 10:26	ORD 12:07	17%	4%	1.4%	93%
OO 5511 SkyWest	OMA 13:07	ORD 14:53	18%	9%	1.9%	no record
UA 739 United Flight history →	OMA 15:13	ORD 17:05	19%	8%	0.9%	69%
MQ 3558 Envoy	OMA 12:17	ORD 13:57	21%	5%	1.7%	no record
UA 1476 United Flight history →	OMA 18:40	ORD 20:34	25%	7%	0.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON