Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5074 American flown by PSA Flight history →	OMA 07:38	PHL 11:34	7%	4%	1.4%	95%
OH 5195 PSA	OMA 14:01	PHL 18:01	16%	6%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	7h 43m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:32 → PHL 13:43DL 8885	7h 18m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest	1h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022	8h 29m	99%	87%
United Details →	OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442	2h 46m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	8h 12m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594	6h 12m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	OMA 13:40 → ATL 17:03DL 1125	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:33DL 1174	7h 53m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	5h 23m	96%	84%
American Details →	OMA 05:20 → DFW 07:20AA 2540	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:29 → PHL 13:00AA 2255	6h 40m	96%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON