Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3255 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 3255 OMA 06:11 → PHX 07:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3256 OMA 17:51 → PHX 18:40 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3255 Southwest	OMA 06:11	PHX 07:05	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3998 Southwest	OMA 11:41	PHX 12:31	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 4886 SkyWest	OMA 08:17	PHX 09:16	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4893 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 18:24	PHX 19:17	11%	5%	0.7%	93%
AA 3039 American	OMA 14:31	PHX 15:27	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3256 Southwest	OMA 17:51	PHX 18:40	18%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON