tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3402 Southwest OMA 13:06 SAN 14:40 18% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Minneapolis MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121 6h 38m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → OMA 08:05 → MSP 09:30DL 3512 · flown by SkyWest 2h 08m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 7h 19m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:39DL 843 8h 14m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 8h 07m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 5h 58m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest 3h 06m Detroit DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:10DL 761 9h 45m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:23 → ATL 13:38DL 2632 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SAN 17:15DL 924 8h 52m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → OMA 09:06 → DEN 09:55UA 2838 3h 35m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 7h 49m 100% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON