Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 312 at 15:15, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 312 Alaska Flight history →	OMA 15:15	SEA 16:57	9%	3%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	3h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	9h 00m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	11h 25m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 08m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	8h 25m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:23 → ATL 13:38DL 2632	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 42m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest	3h 01m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	10h 04m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	OMA 14:02 → DTW 17:06DL 3762 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Detroit	DTW 20:34 → SEA 22:33DL 565	10h 31m	99%	82%
American Details →	OMA 06:20 → CLT 09:58AA 1042	2h 30m Charlotte	CLT 12:28 → SEA 15:21AA 506	11h 01m	99%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	OMA 16:33 → DFW 18:35AA 2269	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:32 → SEA 21:45AA 2009	7h 12m	71%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON