Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1623 United	OMA 07:10	SFO 09:05	10%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	3h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	9h 09m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	9h 49m	99%	81%
United Details →	OMA 14:58 → IAH 17:25UA 6259 · flown by Mesa	2h 24m Houston	IAH 19:49 → SFO 22:12UA 1202	9h 14m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 20m	99%	80%
American Details →	OMA 06:20 → CLT 09:58AA 1042	2h 13m Charlotte	CLT 12:11 → SFO 14:30AA 1489	10h 10m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136	58m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 08m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:23 → ATL 13:38DL 2632	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823	9h 08m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469	9h 52m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	OMA 16:33 → DFW 18:35AA 2269	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:28 → SFO 21:10AA 1430	6h 37m	64%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON