tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 500 at 08:11 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 500 Southwest OMA 08:11 STL 09:37 2% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3403 Southwest OMA 17:56 STL 19:22 13% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → STL 10:43DL 1289 4h 43m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 5h 58m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 52m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 6h 40m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → OMA 14:02 → DTW 17:06DL 3762 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Detroit DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37DL 1541 6h 35m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442 2h 46m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 6h 42m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:28 → DTW 13:30DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 6h 56m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:23 → ATL 13:38DL 2632 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543 5h 43m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → OMA 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 739 50m Chicago ORD 17:55 → STL 19:23UA 4412 · flown by GoJet 4h 10m 70% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON