Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3259 at 12:06, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3259 Southwest	ONT 12:06	AUS 17:18	15%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	1h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	98%	87%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 45m Denver	DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026	6h 20m	98%	85%
United Details →	ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363	1h 04m San Francisco	SFO 08:29 → AUS 14:03UA 1107	6h 03m	95%	84%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	1h 42m Phoenix	PHX 09:12 → AUS 13:38AA 1059	5h 27m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → AUS 22:07DL 1081	8h 19m	96%	79%
Alaska Details →	ONT 12:04 → SEA 14:44AS 654	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 18:19 → AUS 00:31 +1AS 372	10h 27m	100%	78%
American Details →	ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412	1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:33 → AUS 13:46AA 1852	6h 12m	98%	77%
American Details →	ONT 10:18 → DFW 15:25AA 1820	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:16 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	6h 04m	94%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON