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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 13:18, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4996 Southwest ONT 10:06 BNA 16:03 13% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 31m Denver DEN 09:51 → BNA 13:41UA 355 6h 41m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002 7h 56m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Seattle SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815 9h 55m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:52 → BNA 14:57AA 1084 7h 23m 98% 78%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 12:04 → SEA 14:44AS 654 2h 48m Seattle SEA 17:32 → BNA 23:47AS 504 9h 43m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 16m Phoenix PHX 08:46 → BNA 14:17AA 1370 6h 06m 92% 75%
AmericanDetails → ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893 3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:31 → BNA 17:38AA 2244 8h 38m 98% 73%
FrontierDetails → ONT 06:00 → DEN 09:24F9 1500 1h 11m Denver DEN 10:35 → BNA 14:22F9 1402 6h 22m 89% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ONT 06:02 → SEA 08:44AS 607 49m Seattle SEA 09:33 → BNA 15:46AS 522 7h 44m 71% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON