Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via SFO, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363	2h 08m San Francisco	SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664	8h 57m	99%	89%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 26m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	97%	85%
United Details →	ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263	1h 30m Denver	DEN 18:08 → BWI 23:38UA 2843	7h 20m	92%	75%
United Details →	ONT 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2226	1h 47m Chicago	ORD 14:57 → BWI 18:00UA 2737	8h 00m	97%	75%
American Details →	ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412	3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:32 → BWI 18:50AA 2805	10h 16m	99%	74%
American Details →	ONT 12:32 → DFW 17:39AA 2956	1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:37 → BWI 23:43AA 2251	8h 11m	93%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON