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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 20:40 → CLT 21:57DL 3139 7h 09m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 2h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070 7h 52m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 31m Denver DEN 09:51 → CLT 15:18UA 2231 7h 18m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 2h 34m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → CLT 17:24AA 665 8h 13m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696 7h 02m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893 3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:59 → CLT 19:42AA 2013 9h 42m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:18 → DFW 15:25AA 1820 3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:49 → CLT 22:32AA 3002 9h 14m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 07m Denver DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616 6h 50m 86% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON