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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 10m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 6h 59m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 35m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 55m San Francisco SFO 08:20 → DCA 16:47UA 1678 7h 47m 91% 79%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414 7h 25m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 08:30 → DCA 15:59AA 3191 6h 48m 91% 76%
FrontierDetails → ONT 06:00 → DEN 09:24F9 1500 2h 01m Denver DEN 11:25 → DCA 16:59F9 688 7h 59m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → ONT 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2226 3h 47m Chicago ORD 16:57 → DCA 20:02UA 2761 10h 02m 99% 75%
FrontierDetails → ONT 10:49 → DEN 14:10F9 2908 2h 18m Denver DEN 16:28 → DCA 21:59F9 690 8h 10m 96% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON