Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1412 at 05:34 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1412 ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2635 ONT 14:18 → DFW 19:25 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1412 American Flight history →	ONT 05:34	DFW 10:41	6%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 2893 American Flight history →	ONT 07:00	DFW 12:09	8%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 1820 American Flight history →	ONT 10:18	DFW 15:25	16%	5%	0.8%	76%
AA 2956 American Flight history →	ONT 12:32	DFW 17:39	21%	7%	0.8%	71%
AA 2635 American Flight history →	ONT 14:18	DFW 19:25	22%	8%	0.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON