tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 52m Denver DEN 10:12 → EWR 16:16UA 2381 8h 16m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 49m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 50m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → EWR 16:53UA 435 7h 53m 88% 70%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:49 → EWR 16:25AA 813 7h 51m 95% 67%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 12m Denver DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613 7h 26m 88% 66%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 08:30 → EWR 16:14AA 1327 7h 03m 91% 66%
AmericanDetails → ONT 13:12 → PHX 14:45AA 2661 1h 25m Phoenix PHX 16:10 → EWR 23:59AA 1967 7h 47m 89% 64%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:18 → DFW 15:25AA 1820 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:15 → EWR 22:51AA 618 9h 33m 96% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON