tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 26m Denver DEN 09:46 → FLL 15:46UA 1214 7h 46m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → FLL 17:28DL 745 8h 28m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15DL 3816 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Seattle SEA 13:00 → FLL 21:52DL 338 12h 32m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:37 → FLL 16:38AA 1373 8h 04m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 08:30 → FLL 16:05AA 550 6h 54m 91% 74%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:18 → DFW 15:25AA 1820 3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:10 → FLL 23:21AA 1847 10h 03m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893 2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:30 → FLL 18:31AA 2798 8h 31m 97% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON