Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:55 am at Ontario)

Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via SFO, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops today


WN 1461 Southwest	ONT 07:58	HNL 10:59	20%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 270 Alaska Flight history →	ONT 06:58	HNL 11:05	23%	4%	0.8%	86%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	3h 40m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	13h 13m	100%	78%
United Details →	ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363	1h 55m San Francisco	SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175	8h 43m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:29 → SLC 09:22DL 2708	2h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	10h 50m	98%	74%
United Details →	ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375	3h 45m San Francisco	SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638	10h 53m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 16:46 → HNL 19:57DL 419	10h 58m	96%	67%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	2h 39m Phoenix	PHX 10:09 → HNL 14:08AA 693	10h 57m	97%	66%
Alaska Details →	ONT 14:09 → SEA 16:49AS 575	2h 12m Seattle	SEA 19:01 → HNL 22:12AS 451	11h 03m	99%	63%
Alaska Details →	ONT 12:04 → SEA 14:44AS 654	1h 36m Seattle	SEA 16:20 → HNL 19:16AS 121	10h 12m	94%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON