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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 2h 00m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 7h 53m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → ONT 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2226 3h 50m Chicago ORD 17:00 → IAD 20:06UA 3751 10h 06m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 10h 11m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Seattle SEA 16:05 → IAD 00:08 +1DL 541 9h 09m 94% 76%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:58 → IAD 18:13AA 1863 9h 39m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 22m Denver DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32UA 2408 7h 14m 91% 75%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:18 → DFW 15:25AA 1820 3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:46 → IAD 22:54AA 2254 9h 36m 97% 70%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 12:04 → SEA 14:44AS 654 1h 10m Seattle SEA 15:54 → IAD 23:39AS 675 8h 35m 88% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON