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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 2267 at 06:00, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2267 United ONT 06:00 IAH 11:33 6% 2% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 1h 30m San Francisco SFO 08:55 → IAH 15:07UA 2498 7h 07m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 3h 14m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 8h 09m 99% 84%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 12:04 → SEA 14:44AS 654 2h 51m Seattle SEA 17:35 → IAH 00:05 +1AS 240 10h 01m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 1h 57m San Francisco SFO 17:12 → IAH 23:15UA 1649 7h 25m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 58m Atlanta ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284 7h 36m 91% 78%
UnitedDetails → ONT 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2226 2h 55m Chicago ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 10h 10m 98% 77%
FrontierDetails → ONT 10:49 → DEN 14:10F9 2908 3h 25m Denver DEN 17:35 → IAH 21:14F9 3228 8h 25m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 23m Phoenix PHX 08:53 → IAH 13:50AA 2357 5h 39m 94% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON