Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	7h 47m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Seattle	SEA 16:06 → JFK 00:03 +1DL 1044	9h 04m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15DL 3816 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415	10h 55m	97%	77%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	2h 35m Phoenix	PHX 10:05 → JFK 18:15AA 2339	9h 04m	95%	75%
American Details →	ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412	2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:20 → JFK 18:10AA 1058	9h 36m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	ONT 07:11 → PDX 09:35AS 544	1h 12m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	9h 12m	93%	72%
American Details →	ONT 10:18 → DFW 15:25AA 1820	3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:32 → JFK 23:10AA 1248	9h 52m	96%	70%
American Details →	ONT 13:12 → PHX 14:45AA 2661	1h 06m Phoenix	PHX 15:51 → JFK 23:58AA 832	7h 46m	86%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ONT 12:32 → DFW 17:39AA 2956	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:32 → JFK 23:10AA 1248	7h 38m	73%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON