Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2371 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2371 ONT 05:31 → LAS 06:44 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4758 ONT 15:40 → LAS 16:51 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2371 Southwest	ONT 05:31	LAS 06:44	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 442 Southwest	ONT 08:41	LAS 09:54	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 2232 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 07:49	LAS 09:12	12%	5%	1.1%	84%
WN 2424 Southwest	ONT 17:16	LAS 18:29	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 3268 Southwest	ONT 13:31	LAS 14:43	21%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 4758 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 15:40	LAS 16:51	28%	10%	1.2%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON