Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 29m Denver	DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446	7h 46m	98%	77%
American Details →	ONT 10:18 → DFW 15:25AA 1820	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:02 → LGA 23:51AA 1375	10h 33m	97%	69%
American Details →	ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412	1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:33 → LGA 17:21AA 672	8h 47m	98%	68%
American Details →	ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:51 → LGA 18:30AA 1806	8h 30m	96%	62%
United Details →	ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263	57m Denver	DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033	7h 12m	80%	60%
United Details →	ONT 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2226	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 16:00 → LGA 19:15UA 511	9h 15m	98%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON