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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 50m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 8h 04m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 1h 27m San Francisco SFO 08:52 → MCO 17:28UA 583 8h 28m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 11:23 → MCO 18:01DL 2024 9h 01m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 14m Denver DEN 17:52 → MCO 23:41UA 259 7h 23m 89% 75%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:12 → MCO 16:02AA 1615 7h 28m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → ONT 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2226 2h 51m Chicago ORD 16:01 → MCO 19:52UA 1929 9h 52m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 20:15 → MCO 21:53DL 1735 7h 05m 92% 71%
FrontierDetails → ONT 06:00 → DEN 09:24F9 1500 1h 12m Denver DEN 10:36 → MCO 16:30F9 3312 7h 30m 89% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:32 → DFW 17:39AA 2956 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → MCO 22:20AA 2186 6h 48m 70% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON