Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	8h 51m	98%	79%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 12m Denver	DEN 09:32 → MIA 15:36UA 1418	7h 36m	97%	78%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	1h 46m Phoenix	PHX 09:16 → MIA 16:47AA 1968	7h 36m	95%	77%
American Details →	ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:55 → MIA 17:02AA 2461	8h 28m	98%	67%
American Details →	ONT 10:18 → DFW 15:25AA 1820	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:43 → MIA 21:44AA 2050	8h 26m	96%	62%
American Details →	ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:25 → MIA 18:24AA 1167	8h 24m	97%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON