tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2226 United Flight history → ONT 07:00 ORD 13:10 13% 4% 1.0% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 6h 15m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m Seattle SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108 9h 39m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 2h 49m Phoenix PHX 10:19 → ORD 16:05AA 332 7h 54m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 50m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568 6h 50m 88% 74%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 8h 17m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 32m Denver DEN 18:10 → ORD 21:43UA 2272 6h 25m 92% 72%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 1h 42m San Francisco SFO 16:57 → ORD 23:10UA 1887 7h 20m 92% 69%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15DL 3816 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ORD 16:43DL 637 8h 23m 91% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON