Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 544 at 07:11, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 544 Alaska Flight history →	ONT 07:11	PDX 09:35	8%	2%	0.8%	94%
AS 2456 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	ONT 17:32	PDX 19:49	7%	2%	1.3%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	2h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 10m	98%	91%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	3h 07m Denver	DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644	8h 09m	99%	86%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	3h 17m Phoenix	PHX 10:47 → PDX 13:46AA 2684	7h 35m	96%	81%
Alaska Details →	ONT 15:13 → SEA 17:52AS 575	2h 33m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	6h 09m	99%	81%
United Details →	ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363	2h 43m San Francisco	SFO 10:08 → PDX 12:04UA 2624	6h 04m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest	1h 09m Seattle	SEA 16:00 → PDX 17:06DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest	5h 07m	93%	77%
Alaska Details →	ONT 12:04 → SEA 14:44AS 654	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → PDX 18:56AS 2302 · flown by Horizon	6h 52m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15DL 3816 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → PDX 11:41DL 3802 · flown by SkyWest	5h 21m	91%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON