Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2363 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2363 ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 1387 ONT 09:32 → SFO 11:13 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2363 United Flight history →	ONT 06:00	SFO 07:25	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
OO 5483 SkyWest	ONT 16:07	SFO 17:42	25%	15%	0.9%	no record
UA 1375 United Flight history →	ONT 13:50	SFO 15:15	27%	14%	0.6%	57%
F9 1159 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 12:04	SFO 13:43	28%	20%	2.1%	23%
UA 1387 United	ONT 09:32	SFO 11:13	28%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON