Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 3031 at 16:31, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3031 SkyWest	ONT 16:31	STS 18:11	18%	5%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ONT 07:11 → PDX 09:35AS 544	1h 10m Portland	PDX 10:45 → STS 12:26AS 2330 · flown by Horizon	5h 15m	92%	85%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	2h 55m Phoenix	PHX 10:25 → STS 12:37AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	6h 26m	96%	83%
Alaska Details →	ONT 06:02 → SEA 08:44AS 607	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 09:54 → STS 11:58AS 1321	5h 56m	91%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON