Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 723 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 723 ORD 08:51 → ABQ 11:11 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 2159 ORD 19:13 → ABQ 21:29 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 723 United Flight history →	ORD 08:51	ABQ 11:11	15%	4%	0.7%	78%
AA 2068 American	ORD 11:02	ABQ 13:20	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2159 American	ORD 19:13	ABQ 21:29	29%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON