Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2034 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2034 ORD 07:30 → ALB 10:43 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1382 ORD 18:10 → ALB 21:14 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2034 United Flight history →	ORD 07:30	ALB 10:43	9%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 2792 United Flight history →	ORD 12:18	ALB 15:26	17%	6%	0.6%	66%
AA 4240 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:52	ALB 17:54	18%	6%	1.4%	71%
OO 6233 SkyWest	ORD 08:19	ALB 11:26	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 1634 United	ORD 14:30	ALB 17:35	21%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1382 United	ORD 18:10	ALB 21:14	24%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON