Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Seattle, leaving 06:55, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 461 United	ORD 16:05	ANC 19:48	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 375 American Flight history →	ORD 17:05	ANC 21:06	28%	6%	0.8%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 12:27 → MSP 14:10DL 1567	4h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	11h 33m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:00 → SEA 15:44DL 1564	1h 47m Seattle	SEA 17:31 → ANC 20:26DL 2367	10h 26m	95%	75%
Alaska Details →	ORD 05:58 → SEA 08:22AS 587	3h 49m Seattle	SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:57AS 1434	11h 59m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922	9h 22m	92%	71%
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:05 → SEA 10:24AS 583	2h 57m Seattle	SEA 13:21 → ANC 16:08AS 1440	11h 03m	95%	69%
American Details →	ORD 11:02 → DFW 13:30AA 1106	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:09 → ANC 19:27AA 399	11h 25m	92%	66%
Alaska Details →	ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579	1h 17m Seattle	SEA 16:59 → ANC 19:38AS 225	9h 37m	82%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON