tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 4716 SkyWest ORD 20:21 ASE 22:25 13% 5% 1.6% no record
UA 5279 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 08:52 ASE 11:01 16% 5% 1.1% 64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666 1h 04m Denver DEN 07:45 → ASE 08:46UA 5444 · flown by SkyWest 4h 46m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → ORD 13:00 → LAX 15:34UA 1363 2h 20m Los Angeles LAX 17:54 → ASE 21:22UA 5786 · flown by SkyWest 9h 22m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 2h 08m Denver DEN 09:50 → ASE 10:51UA 5782 · flown by SkyWest 5h 51m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:18 → ASE 12:26UA 5769 · flown by SkyWest 6h 21m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → ASE 11:22DL 4011 · flown by SkyWest 6h 52m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803 54m Denver DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest 4h 56m 78% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:30 → LAX 17:05UA 374 49m Los Angeles LAX 17:54 → ASE 21:22UA 5786 · flown by SkyWest 7h 52m 71% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON