Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1264 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1264 ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2096 ORD 16:30 → ATL 19:45 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1264 Delta Flight history →	ORD 05:30	ATL 08:29	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
UA 2249 United Flight history →	ORD 07:13	ATL 10:32	7%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 1247 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:35	ATL 09:37	8%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 1178 Delta Flight history →	ORD 09:45	ATL 12:51	9%	3%	0.7%	87%
UA 530 United Flight history →	ORD 09:07	ATL 12:22	10%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 639 American	ORD 06:45	ATL 10:00	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 1687 Delta	ORD 08:10	ATL 11:16	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2684 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	ATL 13:44	12%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 1147 Delta Flight history →	ORD 11:20	ATL 14:25	13%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 851 American	ORD 08:37	ATL 11:47	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 1477 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:22	ATL 18:36	15%	6%	0.8%	76%
UA 2779 United	ORD 12:18	ATL 15:26	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2894 Delta Flight history →	ORD 13:44	ATL 16:54	15%	4%	0.9%	72%
UA 356 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	ATL 17:10	17%	6%	0.6%	75%
AA 2910 American Flight history →	ORD 10:11	ATL 13:26	19%	6%	0.7%	75%
AA 616 American	ORD 12:55	ATL 16:10	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
F9 1596 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 10:38	ATL 13:49	20%	7%	1.0%	74%
AA 3114 American	ORD 19:35	ATL 22:49	20%	9%	0.9%	no record
DL 1652 Delta	ORD 18:35	ATL 21:41	21%	5%	0.8%	no record
F9 1442 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 19:43	ATL 23:00	21%	11%	1.2%	62%
UA 1398 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	ATL 21:41	22%	7%	0.6%	58%
AA 2096 American	ORD 16:30	ATL 19:45	26%	10%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON