Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 3475 at 10:11 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3475 ORD 10:11 → ATW 11:26 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5611 ORD 16:44 → ATW 17:49 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3475 Envoy	ORD 10:11	ATW 11:26	15%	3%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3341 Envoy	ORD 16:56	ATW 17:57	22%	6%	1.9%	no record
OO 409 SkyWest	ORD 10:29	ATW 11:34	22%	6%	1.6%	no record
OO 5609 SkyWest	ORD 12:42	ATW 13:47	24%	7%	1.7%	no record
UA 5987 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:17	ATW 19:32	26%	9%	2.1%	48%
OO 5611 SkyWest	ORD 16:44	ATW 17:49	27%	8%	2.1%	no record
UA 4495 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 22:00	ATW 23:23	12%	3%	8.1%	88%
UA 4479 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:55	ATW 15:09	21%	7%	0.0%	79%
UA 4460 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	ATW 11:43	22%	5%	0.0%	78%
UA 4475 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:45	ATW 14:05	24%	11%	6.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON