Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1336 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1336 ORD 07:00 → AUS 09:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 438 ORD 15:07 → AUS 17:52 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1336 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	AUS 09:56	5%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1688 United Flight history →	ORD 09:01	AUS 11:59	9%	4%	0.6%	83%
UA 1061 United Flight history →	ORD 11:47	AUS 14:41	12%	5%	0.6%	81%
AA 1121 American	ORD 08:07	AUS 10:52	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1211 United	ORD 13:30	AUS 16:16	19%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2433 American	ORD 19:10	AUS 21:55	22%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 438 American	ORD 15:07	AUS 17:52	27%	10%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON