Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3963 at 08:04 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3963 ORD 08:04 → AVL 10:50 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest OO 5637 ORD 18:22 → AVL 21:22 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3963 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:04	AVL 10:50	15%	2%	1.9%	86%
OO 5413 SkyWest	ORD 07:13	AVL 10:03	17%	5%	1.7%	no record
YX 4737 Republic	ORD 15:06	AVL 18:02	20%	6%	1.6%	no record
OO 5637 SkyWest	ORD 18:22	AVL 21:22	28%	11%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON